Impact Assessment Tools

What are the major impacts to agricultural viability in our county and how are they projected to change in the future?

Below you will also find new tools created to assess risk on your farm - flood depth predictions and climate impacts to crops.

 

  HAZEL BLUE ACRES FARM / 2017 PHOTOVOICE

HAZEL BLUE ACRES FARM / 2017 PHOTOVOICE

Flood Modeling: 

Many factors are leading to changes in flooding for both the Snohomish and Stillaguamish Rivers. In some areas, these changes are already impacting farms - bank erosion, flood debris removal, crop and soil damage, and drainage all create challenges. New flood modeling conducted by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group will be available online and provide farmers with long-term forecasting to plan for and manage risk. 

  • Inundation modeling for the Stillaguamish and Snohomish Rivers including major tributaries

  • Projections of flood height for 2, 10, 25, and 100-year floods out to the years 2050 and 2080.

  • The Flooding Prediction Tool is complete! Find your location on the map to see what levels seas might rise within time frames or with various greenhouse gas scenarios.

 
 golden eagle north

golden eagle north

Groundwater and Sea Level Rise Modeling:

Increased flooding and rising sea levels are creating a “coastal squeeze” where farms near the river mouth are at risk of increasing drainage challenges, saltwater intrusion, and pressure on sea dikes. Groundwater modeling conducted by Cardno will show how this “squeeze” is projected to impact groundwater levels so farmers can plan for changes in drainage management.

  • Predictions of groundwater levels on estuary farmland out to the years 2050 and 2080

  • Combination of field work (monitoring wells) and modeling used to create predictions

  • Washington Sea Grant and University of Washington’s Impact Group have released a sea-level rise report that provides the clearest picture yet of what projections may look like in Washington State.

 
  MARK LONGSTROTH (MSUE)

MARK LONGSTROTH (MSUE)

Crop Impacts:

The impacts of increased temperatures and higher atmospheric CO2 levels have the potential to be both hazards and benefits to agriculture in the region. Washington State University has created an online tool that will allow farmers to view climate projections for growing season length, frost risk, heat stress, and crop maturity timing for their specific location.

  • The Climate Visualization Tool is ready. Load the tool and then click on a dot to view the predicted changes on the tabs across the top: growing days, temperature and precipitation.

  • Spatial analogs (mapping) will show locations where current growing conditions are similar to future growing conditions in our area


Brought to you by:

Funding provided by: National Estuary Program, NOAA, Stillaguamish River Lead Entity, Estuary and Salmon Restoration Program, and Floodplains by Design